Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b4d…c525 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized +$47 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%22W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$567
sports 38% +$306
crypto 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +15.4% +4.4% 44% 38% -14.6%
≤30d 50 +15.4% +4.4% 44% 38% -14.6%
≤90d 50 +15.4% +4.4% 44% 38% -14.6%
all 50 +15.4% +4.4% 44% 38% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 38% -14.6%
10% -5.6% 34% -22.7%
15% -14.7% 30% -30.2%
20% -23.1% 22% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$47 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses22 / 28
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage7d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $501 −$182 -36%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$60 +118%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 +$57 +56%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $102 +$5 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$22 -21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $502 +$74 +15%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $26 +$284 +1104%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$120 +234%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$56 +110%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 +$13 +125%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $21 −$19 -91%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $51 −$23 -45%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $59 +$18 +30%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$47 -92%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$43 +84%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $21 +$22 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $9 +$3 +36%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$71 -69%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $112 +$178 +159%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +41%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $20 +$9 +45%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$146 +711%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 35m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $19 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $290 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $158 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $199 12h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 65¢ $27 13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 49¢ $80 13h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 14h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $95 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $81 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $51 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $577 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $44 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 17h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 54¢ $15 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 19h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $26 19h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.07 · official $192.07 (match) · 342 history records