Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b54…187b crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$80 (+8%) realized +$45 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate72%18W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$1
sports 8% +$62
other 4% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +7.4% -2.8% 72% 60% -9.7%
≤30d 25 +7.4% -2.8% 72% 60% -9.7%
≤90d 25 +7.4% -2.8% 72% 60% -9.7%
all 25 +7.4% -2.8% 72% 60% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 60% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 48% -18.3%
15% -20.6% 32% -26.2%
20% -28.4% 20% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$35 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses18 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage2d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $35 +$35 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $71 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $81 +$25 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$38 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +10%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $82 +$62 +76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 −$30 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$19 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$22 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $82 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $83 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $80 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $109 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $100 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $83 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $71 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $69 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $61 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $107 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $81 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $76 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $34 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $16 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.90 · official $34.90 (match) · 53 history records