Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b55…ddca sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,530 (-24%) realized −$2,530 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,453per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% $0
sports 33% −$3,190
other 3% −$303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-69.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -66.7% -69.8% 0% 0% -22.8%
≤30d 3 -66.7% -69.8% 0% 0% -22.8%
≤90d 3 -66.7% -69.8% 0% 0% -22.8%
all 3 -66.7% -69.8% 0% 0% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -69.8% 0% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -72.7% 0% -30.2%
15% -75.4% 0% -37.0%
20% -77.8% 0% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1,746 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,530
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,453
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $3,407 −$3,190 -94%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $308 −$303 -98%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $6,645 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 3¢ $58 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 3¢ $117 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $104 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $204 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 39¢ $1,087 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 39¢ $5 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 39¢ $1 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 39¢ $6 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 39¢ $70 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 39¢ $1 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $2,237 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records