Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9B 0x9b57…95e1 sports 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,224 (+3%) realized +$7,172 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate74%133W / 47L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$1,414per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$765est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$3,881now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,369
7 days+$3,765
14 days+$5,587
30 days+$5,040
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$4,128
sports 46% +$1,199
world 7% +$2,013
weather 0% −$72
crypto 0% −$481
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +112.7% +92.4% 82% 53% -3.7%
≤30d 66 +17.7% +6.5% 71% 36% -5.2%
≤90d 180 +5.6% -4.5% 74% 39% -6.0%
all 180 +5.6% -4.5% 74% 39% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 39% -6.0%
10% -13.6% 18% -15.0%
15% ← realistic here -22.0% 8% -23.2%
20% -29.6% 5% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$1,004) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$256 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$3,881
Realized+$7,172
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses133 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$765
Open positions5
Markets (closed)180 / 185
History coverage54d
Avg bet$1,414
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $2,227 $2,303 +$76 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $985 $963 −$22 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $308 $306 −$2 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $205 $204 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $102 $104 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9,806 +$184 +2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,464 +$223 +9%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $563 +$67 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11,427 +$661 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,004 +$234 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $893 +$97 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,506 +$206 +14%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,308 +$292 +22%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $133 +$67 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5,195 +$743 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $574 −$518 -90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7,441 +$259 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $555 +$45 +8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9,506 +$644 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $119 −$118 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $107 −$88 -82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5,066 +$768 +15%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $939 +$161 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $7,178 +$714 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $163 +$37 +23%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $585 −$20 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $524 +$75 +14%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $347 +$103 +30%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $1,221 −$496 -41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2,283 +$317 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $137 +$62 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $181 +$19 +11%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $1,092 +$107 +10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $609 +$74 +12%
Will Moldova vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? Jun 05 $3,154 +$163 +5%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $7,853 +$445 +6%
Will Slovakia vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 05 $1,095 +$57 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $125 +$5 +4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $121 −$120 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $10,050 +$190 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $202 +$26 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $2,200 +$200 +9%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 30 $1,182 −$72 -6%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $950 +$50 +5%
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky May 28 $567 −$42 -7%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada May 26 $1,282 +$148 +12%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $128 +$4 +3%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? May 25 $303 −$260 -86%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $8,414 +$419 +5%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $641 −$640 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $109 +$91 +83%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $103 −$101 -98%
World Championships: Norway vs. Sweden May 23 $160 −$160 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $302 +$103 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 77¢ $310 39m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 79¢ $207 41m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $103 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,990 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $9,806 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $24 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $15 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $42 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $105 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $55 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $50 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $17 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $29 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $11 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,880.53 · official $3,880.53 (match) · 1263 history records