Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b58…4add crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-7%) realized +$7 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%15W / 8L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$2
other 33% −$1
world 22% −$15
tech 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +5.5% -4.5% 65% 48% -4.2%
≤30d 23 +5.5% -4.5% 65% 48% -4.2%
≤90d 23 +5.5% -4.5% 65% 48% -4.2%
all 23 +5.5% -4.5% 65% 48% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 48% -4.2%
10% -13.7% 30% -13.3%
15% -22.0% 22% -21.7%
20% -29.6% 13% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses15 / 8
Open positions9
Markets (closed)23 / 32
History coverage10d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 14¢ 6¢ $24 $10 −$14 (-59%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 78¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $11 −$2 -22%
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June Jun 14 $0 $0 +33%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -77%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 14 $10 +$4 +41%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$5 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $2 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $3 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.42 · official $48.42 (match) · 101 history records