Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9B 0x9b5a…fa77 other 191 markets active 13h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$3,089 (-11%) realized −$1,937 · open −$1,152
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate19%27W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$10,113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days+$246
14 days+$351
30 days−$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$3,368
sports 12% −$769
world 7% +$3,772
politics 5% −$720
tech 4% −$1,010
crypto 4% −$277
economics 2% −$312
finance 2% −$409
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-55.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +44.7% +30.9% 45% 36% +15.9%
≤30d 24 -14.1% -22.3% 33% 25% -18.3%
≤90d 76 -55.9% -60.1% 17% 13% +14.9%
all 143 -50.9% -55.6% 19% 17% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.6% 17% -21.0%
10% -59.8% 17% -28.6%
15% -63.7% 13% -35.5%
20% -67.3% 12% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$79 · ×3.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$10,113
Realized−$1,937
Unrealized−$1,152
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses27 / 116
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions46
Markets (closed)143 / 191
History coverage584d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,851 $2,005 +$154 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $2,226 $1,760 −$466 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,426 $1,327 −$99 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $716 $967 +$251 (+35%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,002 $761 −$241 (-24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $469 $541 +$72 (+15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $326 $339 +$13 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $235 $298 +$63 (+27%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $228 $281 +$54 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $253 +$3 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $218 −$32 (-13%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $167 $180 +$13 (+8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $185 $141 −$44 (-24%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $167 $134 −$33 (-20%)
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $150 $126 −$24 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 11¢ $293 $107 −$187 (-64%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $102 $60 −$42 (-41%)
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? Yes $100 $59 −$41 (-41%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $70 $54 −$16 (-22%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 67¢ 36¢ $90 $48 −$42 (-47%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $91 $46 −$45 (-49%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $45 $37 −$8 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $84 −$20 -24%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $90 −$33 -37%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $20 +$86 +420%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $76 +$132 +172%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $459 +$4 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 09 $26 +$8 +33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $127 −$125 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 26 $409 −$198 -48%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $279 −$201 -72%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $194 +$13 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 11 $504 −$76 -15%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $142 −$121 -85%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 04 $177 +$44 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 04 $68 −$66 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 04 $181 −$175 -97%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 01 $103 −$100 -97%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Apr 28 $259 −$250 -96%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Apr 13 $200 +$10 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 12 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 12 $50 −$48 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Apr 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $10 +$8 +79%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? Apr 09 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $938 +$4,444 +474%
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 08 $140 −$140 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-10? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $20 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $129 13h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $64 13h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $57 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 13h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 13h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 13h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $77 13h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $77 13h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 41h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 41h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Wi BUY 15¢ $6 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $57 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Scotlan BUY $5 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 3d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 5d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 19¢ $5 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,112.59 · official $10,111.68 (match) · 805 history records