Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9B 0x9b5b…2749 other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$15
politics 38% −$13
sports 5% +$42
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 110 -2.8% -12.1% 5% 5% -9.7%
all 120 +0.3% -9.2% 9% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 8% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 8% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 5% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×10.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage111d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $322 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $238 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $417 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $240 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $354 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $560 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $192 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $269 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $254 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $213 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $472 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $438 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $201 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $280 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $498 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $243 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $416 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $281 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $242 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $239 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $249 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $412 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $214 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $441 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $212 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 20 $175 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $136 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $178 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $391 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $198 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $136 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $136 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $175 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 9d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 12d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 16d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $248 17d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $248 21d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 24d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $238 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $277 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $278 33d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $233 34d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $233 42d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $240 42d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $240 43d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $192 43d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $192 45d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $286 45d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $286 45d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $264 45d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $264 46d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $274 46d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $274 46d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 46d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 46d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $192 47d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $192 47d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $219 47d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $219 47d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $269 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.98 · official $47.98 (match) · 373 history records