Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b5c…0b1a other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,415 (-9%) realized −$7,882 · open −$533
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate74%28W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,084per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164
7 days−$164
14 days−$164
30 days−$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% +$1,843
crypto 25% +$215
sports 12% −$6,392
other 11% −$4,250
world 10% −$61
economics 8% +$246
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -58.5% -62.5% 0% 0% -62.5%
≤30d 2 -79.3% -81.2% 0% 0% -72.2%
≤90d 2 -79.3% -81.2% 0% 0% -72.2%
all 38 -18.3% -26.1% 74% 16% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.1% 16% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 11% -25.5%
15% -39.6% 8% -32.7%
20% -45.5% 3% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% too few recent
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,589) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$1,101 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$1,163
Realized−$7,882
Unrealized−$533
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses28 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage338d
Avg bet$2,084
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $400 $455 +$55 (+14%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $786 $426 −$360 (-46%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $400 $180 −$220 (-55%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $279 −$164 -58%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $100 −$98 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang Mar 08 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
SBF released from custody in 2025? Mar 08 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Park vs. Taira Mar 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Mar 08 $2,859 −$2,859 -100%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Mar 08 $3,257 −$3,257 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 10 $1,200 +$433 +36%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 10 $100 +$45 +45%
Will DegenPing win the Synthetix trading competition? Nov 06 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $11,505 +$1,272 +11%
Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the 2025 Tanzania presidential election? Nov 04 $174 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $500 +$16 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $1,519 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 2? Nov 02 $2,016 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 31? Oct 31 $2,014 +$2 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 30 $2,000 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 29? Oct 29 $3,589 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 28? Oct 29 $2,586 +$3 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 28 $4,449 +$16 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 28? Oct 28 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025? Oct 28 $516 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on October 27? Oct 28 $4,065 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 26? Oct 26 $4,060 +$4 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Oct 26 $5,000 +$108 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 25 $216 +$17 +8%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $3,722 +$84 +2%
Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025? Oct 10 $200 +$16 +8%
Will Israel strike Turkey by December 31? Oct 09 $3,654 +$68 +2%
Will Marco Francis win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? Oct 03 $12,500 +$73 +1%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? Sep 25 $300 −$238 -79%
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Sterling Sep 12 $2,400 +$295 +12%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 03 $100 +$10 +10%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $5,000 +$208 +4%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Jul 25 $98 +$6 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3800 in July? Jul 20 $300 +$176 +59%
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31? Jul 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Jul 19 $1,002 +$270 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $89 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $21 2h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 23d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $95 23d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $401 36d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $598 37d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $279 37d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 37d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $412 37d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 37d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL Yes 12¢ $30 224d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? SELL Yes 80¢ $145 224d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 224d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL Yes 42¢ $853 224d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $750 224d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 224d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 224d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 224d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 224d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 224d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 225d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 225d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 225d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 225d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 225d
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 225d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 225d
Will DegenPing win the Synthetix trading competition? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 228d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,162.81 · official $1,161.99 (match) · 152 history records