Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b5d…cdfc other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,461 (-10%) realized −$3,108 · open +$647
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate78%18W / 5L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$979per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$5,597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,962
7 days−$3,640
14 days−$3,640
30 days−$3,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$422
sports 33% −$2,817
crypto 3% +$402
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -20.9% -28.4% 50% 50% -57.9%
≤30d 6 -20.9% -28.4% 50% 50% -57.9%
≤90d 22 -3.1% -12.3% 77% 55% -22.0%
all 23 -1.2% -10.6% 78% 57% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 57% -21.8%
10% -19.2% 39% -29.3%
15% -27.0% 26% -36.1%
20% -34.1% 9% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,081) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$1,231 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$5,597
Realized−$3,108
Unrealized+$647
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses18 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage221d
Avg bet$979
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $3,500 $4,159 +$659 (+19%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1,450 $1,438 −$12 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,196 −$1,172 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2,755 −$2,750 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$24 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,019 +$936 +92%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,086 −$1,081 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $682 +$402 +59%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $1,109 +$396 +36%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 13 $32 +$2 +8%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 May 13 $654 +$148 +23%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $503 +$85 +17%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 May 10 $612 +$278 +45%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $153 −$125 -82%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $654 +$81 +12%
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $706 +$39 +6%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,305 +$5 +0%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $1,036 +$395 +38%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $502 +$2 +0%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 09 $1,003 +$123 +12%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $999 +$86 +9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 09 $1,028 −$1,028 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $256 +$29 +11%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,996 +$446 +22%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $100 +$39 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,468 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3,524 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $1,196 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2,755 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 45¢ $126 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $102 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 71¢ $1,955 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $1,019 46h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $1,086 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,085 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $682 3d
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,505 32d
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,109 32d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 34d
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $802 34d
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $654 34d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $588 34d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 35d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 37d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $890 37d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $612 37d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL No $28 37d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 42¢ $153 37d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $561 37d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 38d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL No 45¢ $175 38d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 38¢ $153 38d
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 74¢ $745 38d
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 38d
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,596.59 · official $5,596.59 (match) · 56 history records