Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:59:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9B 0x9b5d…7501 sports 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,469 (-2%) realized −$4,446 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%90W / 71L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,264per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2,115est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,841
7 days−$4,140
14 days−$5,133
30 days−$5,133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$5,272
crypto 1% −$377
other 0% −$435
finance 0% −$82
tech 0% +$140
weather 0% −$47
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +15.3% +4.3% 72% 58% -11.4%
≤30d 82 +29.3% +17.0% 65% 52% -11.8%
≤90d 85 +24.7% +12.8% 62% 51% -11.9%
all 161 +3.8% -6.1% 56% 40% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 40% -12.1%
10% -15.0% 32% -20.5%
15% -23.3% 27% -28.2%
20% -30.8% 24% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$555 vs −$788 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$4,446
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses90 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$2,115
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 162
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,264
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 89¢ 80¢ $213 $190 −$23 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $189 +$25 +13%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $206 −$137 -66%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $284 +$10 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $119 +$43 +36%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $111 +$11 +10%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $942 −$834 -88%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 19 $127 +$25 +20%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $6,276 −$6,150 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $159 +$20 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3,143 +$2,986 +95%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $754 +$58 +8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,565 +$1,528 +98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1,240 +$107 +9%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $500 +$203 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $243 +$294 +121%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5) Jun 18 $1,816 −$1,800 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,413 +$245 +17%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4,460 −$2,658 -60%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9,013 −$4,548 -50%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $7,151 +$1,863 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4,615 +$925 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,375 +$857 +16%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2,698 +$2,670 +99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8,382 −$3,106 -37%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2,424 +$3,379 +139%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4,768 +$35 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,095 +$1,303 +119%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $28,413 −$27,978 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $24,489 +$3,954 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $21,569 +$2,938 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9,554 +$1,001 +10%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10,141 +$10,398 +102%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2,007 +$232 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $7,125 +$2,804 +39%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5,584 +$1,544 +28%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2,524 +$3,059 +121%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $1,065 +$827 +78%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,647 +$57 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $693 +$951 +137%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $370 +$324 +88%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $190 +$181 +95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,695 −$1,505 -89%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $190 −$188 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,294 +$401 +31%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $568 +$540 +95%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,478 −$1,453 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,358 +$125 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 89¢ $214 16m
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $214 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 88¢ $189 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $38 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $32 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $32 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $174 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $174 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $163 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $162 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 72¢ $119 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $119 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $121 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $121 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $111 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $108 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $796 21h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) SELL Athletics 100¢ $152 21h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Athletics 83¢ $127 22h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $146 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $126 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $178 23h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Atlanta Dream 99¢ $179 24h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 88¢ $159 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $6,098 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up $27 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $6,129 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3,143 31h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $812 32h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $754 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.37 · official $192.77 · 347 history records