Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9B
0x9b5e…aa21
crypto · 29 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$29 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$28 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses5 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 1 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$9 +798%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 70% −$24
other 30% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -29.0% -35.8% 18% 18% -42.7%
≤30d 28 -29.0% -35.8% 18% 18% -42.7%
≤90d 28 -29.0% -35.8% 18% 18% -42.7%
all 28 -29.0% -35.8% 18% 18% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.8% 18% -42.7%
10% ← realistic here -41.9% 18% -48.2%
15% -47.5% 18% -53.2%
20% -52.7% 14% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.66 · official $31.66 (match) · 51 history records