Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:38:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b5f…3492 sports 604 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,910 (-5%) realized −$6,912 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%292W / 311L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$1,068est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days+$155
14 days−$216
30 days−$2,597
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$7,597
crypto 0% −$68
other 0% −$135
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -1.3% -10.7% 57% 47% -3.4%
≤30d 135 -11.6% -20.1% 47% 43% -19.4%
≤90d 352 -4.9% -13.9% 50% 42% -16.4%
all 603 -3.9% -13.1% 48% 42% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 42% -14.7%
10% -21.4% 35% -22.8%
15% -29.0% 26% -30.3%
20% -35.9% 15% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$97 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$6,912
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses292 / 311
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1,068
Open positions1
Markets (closed)603 / 604
History coverage145d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 603 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner EDward Gaming 65¢ 66¢ $194 $196 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $39 −$24 -62%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $333 −$43 -13%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $103 −$40 -39%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $111 +$49 +44%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $253 −$63 -25%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $179 −$33 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $462 −$14 -3%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $203 +$3 +2%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $272 +$83 +30%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $272 +$45 +17%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $119 −$6 -5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $73 −$66 -90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$13 -32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $18 +$6 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $72 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$203 +203%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $112 −$110 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $151 +$45 +30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $113 +$31 +28%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $99 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $304 −$207 -68%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $94 +$29 +31%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $263 +$33 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $108 −$95 -88%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $69 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$12 -25%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $44 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $129 +$97 +75%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $212 +$19 +9%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $91 +$19 +22%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $103 +$68 +66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $111 +$51 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $76 +$38 +51%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $70 +$21 +30%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $124 +$47 +38%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $79 +$49 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $185 −$74 -40%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $81 +$49 +60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $111 −$20 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $91 +$37 +41%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $111 −$10 -9%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$72 +72%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $94 −$56 -60%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $81 −$80 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $53 +$28 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 65¢ $196 27m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 4¢ $15 33m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 10¢ $39 39m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 17¢ $16 43m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 39¢ $64 44m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $78 50m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 27¢ $66 52m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 50¢ $2 56m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 37¢ $94 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 63¢ $144 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 70¢ $161 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 32¢ $61 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 51¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 96¢ $160 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 66¢ $111 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 28¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 10¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $91 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 9¢ $34 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 96¢ $194 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 71¢ $145 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 46¢ $84 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $111 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 47¢ $29 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $44 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 33¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 39¢ $42 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $73 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 77¢ $174 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.50 · official $195.50 (match) · 1706 history records