Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b60…85e0 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$726 (+5%) realized +$345 · open +$381
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$4,785now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$277
7 days+$978
14 days+$676
30 days+$676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$526
other 39% −$153
world 3% +$426
crypto 2% +$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +7.8% -2.5% 39% 39% +1.4%
≤30d 40 +4.0% -5.9% 38% 38% -2.2%
≤90d 40 +4.0% -5.9% 38% 38% -2.2%
all 40 +4.0% -5.9% 38% 38% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 38% -2.2%
10% -14.9% 38% -11.6%
15% -23.1% 38% -20.1%
20% -30.7% 35% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$281 vs −$142 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$4,785
Realized+$345
Unrealized+$381
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions17
Markets (closed)40 / 63
History coverage9d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 74¢ 64¢ $776 $673 −$104 (-13%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $450 −$50 (-10%)
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) Fokina 40¢ 100¢ $175 $437 +$262 (+150%)
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 56¢ 84¢ $275 $410 +$135 (+49%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 59¢ 76¢ $300 $389 +$89 (+30%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 53¢ 52¢ $400 $389 −$11 (-3%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $275 $306 +$31 (+11%)
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Yes 43¢ 42¢ $300 $287 −$13 (-4%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $300 $264 −$36 (-12%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 59¢ $150 $229 +$79 (+53%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Mbappe 54¢ 55¢ $125 $127 +$2 (+1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $75 $109 +$34 (+45%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $45 −$15 (-25%)
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $24 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 44¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $305 +$362 +119%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,013 +$358 +35%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $254 −$250 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $406 +$463 +114%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $406 +$394 +97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $305 −$300 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $407 −$400 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $305 +$347 +114%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $254 −$250 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $304 +$205 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$258 +85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $102 +$231 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $254 +$289 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $464 +$318 +69%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $51 +$243 +474%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$214 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $433 −$430 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $17 −$5 -29%
Will Kai Havertz score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $14 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 13 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $183 +$208 +114%
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? Jun 12 $7 $0 -3%
Will Alphonso Davies score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -9%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 12 $43 −$1 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $253 +$171 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $208 +$158 +76%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $304 −$300 -99%
Will a player representing Ecuador be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $5 −$2 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $406 1h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $305 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $406 1h
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) BUY Fokina 40¢ $178 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 45¢ $305 14h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 38¢ $204 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $507 19h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $494 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $254 26h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $153 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 26h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Austri BUY 12¢ $103 41h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $102 43h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $305 43h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $406 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $407 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $406 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $305 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 54¢ $253 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 36¢ $153 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $253 2d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 2d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $51 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $254 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,785.45 · official $4,785.45 (match) · 129 history records