Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:09:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b6b…b818 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$26 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1
other 33% +$8
crypto 9% $0
politics 3% +$17
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.5% -10.9% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 19 -0.6% -10.1% 32% 0% -9.6%
all 36 +4.5% -5.5% 33% 8% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 8% -7.7%
10% -14.5% 8% -16.5%
15% -22.8% 6% -24.6%
20% -30.4% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage302d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $112 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $58 +$1 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $63 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $66 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $46 +$1 +3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $57 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $120 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $13 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $5 $0 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $7 $0 +4%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $98 −$3 -3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $47 +$11 +24%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $12 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $35 +$17 +48%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $1 +$3 +200%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $29 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $55 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $55 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $58 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $28 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $29 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $1 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $63 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $63 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $37 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $48 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $7 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $1 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $9 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $44 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.19 · official $63.19 (match) · 146 history records