Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9B 0x9b6b…9a8a crypto 173 markets active 2d ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,830 (-229%) realized −$12,733 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%12W / 338L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day82.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$1,994
world 9% +$944
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-72.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -77.7% -79.9% 3% 3% -68.7%
≤30d 278 -66.8% -70.0% 4% 3% -69.3%
≤90d 350 -69.5% -72.4% 3% 3% -66.0%
all 350 -69.5% -72.4% 3% 3% -66.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -72.4% 3% -66.0%
10% ← realistic here -75.1% 3% -69.2%
15% -77.5% 3% -72.2%
20% -79.7% 3% -74.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -58% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$831 vs −$88 · ×9.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$12,733
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses12 / 338
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)350 / 173
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day82.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $80 $10 −$70 (-88%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $29 $4 −$25 (-87%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 345 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 9? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 6? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 5? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 7? Jun 28 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Jun 28 $786 −$786 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16? Jun 28 $366 −$366 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20? Jun 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 16? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 21? Jun 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20? Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Jun 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 11? Jun 28 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on April 29? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Jun 28 $307 −$307 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 24? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9? Jun 28 $434 −$434 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Jun 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Jun 28 $341 −$341 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12? Jun 28 $259 −$259 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 12? Jun 28 $385 −$385 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 7? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 13? Jun 28 $128 −$128 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11? Jun 28 $494 −$494 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 7? Jun 28 $138 −$138 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Jun 28 $239 −$239 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8? Jun 28 $338 −$338 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Jun 28 $208 −$208 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? Jun 28 $132 +$3,239 +2454%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 30? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? Jun 28 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Jun 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Jun 28 $196 −$196 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 15? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $8 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 1¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $12 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 2¢ $182 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 2¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 20¢ $1,126 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.50 · official $40.50 (match) · 3500 history records