Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b73…0edb politics 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%10W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$4
sports 27% −$3
other 22% −$1
economics 4% $0
world 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 57 -9.2% -17.9% 18% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses10 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage226d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $89 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $89 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $88 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 08 $1 $0 -50%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 07 $1 $0 -50%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 06 $89 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 31 $91 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 27 $94 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 25 $93 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $2 −$1 -22%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $1 $0 -20%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 22 $2 $0 -7%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $5 −$1 -11%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $2 $0 -20%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $86 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $194 −$1 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $94 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 13 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 11 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 07 $1 $0 -25%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 06 $96 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 05 $192 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $193 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 29 $94 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $95 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 25 $2 $0 -11%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 13 $95 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $96 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $1 $0 -17%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $2 $0 -20%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $1 $0 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 2? Dec 03 $82 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 03 $1 $0 -33%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 01 $1 $0 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 29 $95 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 29 $1 $0 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $89 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $89 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 15d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 19d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 0¢ $1 110d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $93 110d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $93 116d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 132d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $91 132d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $91 134d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 134d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 135d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 139d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 140d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $91 140d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 144d
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $94 145d
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $94 146d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C BUY No 100¢ $93 149d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 149d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 150d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 150d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $86 150d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $86 151d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 151d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 151d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 151d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.86 · official $93.86 (match) · 208 history records