Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b74…6c1d crypto 586 markets active 5d ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$130 (-5%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate81%476W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$207
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$149
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -5.2% -14.2% 76% 56% -12.8%
≤30d 71 -64.0% -67.4% 27% 20% -84.5%
≤90d 586 -7.2% -16.0% 81% 25% -14.3%
all 586 -7.2% -16.0% 81% 25% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 25% -14.3%
10% -24.1% 13% -22.5%
15% -31.4% 8% -30.0%
20% -38.1% 4% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses476 / 110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)586 / 586
History coverage65d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 586 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
First Blood in Game 3? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 4d
First Blood in Game 3? BUY T1 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1301 history records