Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9B 0x9b78…4fb1 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$54 (+15%) realized +$75 · open −$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip

Net edge+17%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$87per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+21.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+34.2%	+21.4%	100%	67%	+14.5%
≤30d	3	+34.2%	+21.4%	100%	67%	+14.5%
≤90d	3	+34.2%	+21.4%	100%	67%	+14.5%
all	3	+34.2%	+21.4%	100%	67%	+14.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+21.4%	67%	+14.5%
10%	+9.8%	33%	+3.6%
15%	-0.8%	33%	-6.4%
20%	-10.5%	33%	-15.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 88% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$130

Realized+$75

Unrealized−$21

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$87

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	68¢	58¢	$151	$130	−$21 (-14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$50	+$5	+11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$96	+$1	+1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime?	Jun 24	$51	+$46	+91%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$101	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	99¢	$96	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	90¢	$50	3h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	99¢	$97	3h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.17 · official $139.07 · 8 history records