Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9B 0x9b78…473d sports 1040 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$67,812 (+28%) realized +$67,789 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate73%759W / 279L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day67.5pace
Fees−$1,781est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$21,869
other 44% +$10,373
world 2% −$337
crypto 0% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -50.9% -55.6% 27% 24% -36.5%
≤30d 606 +20.4% +8.9% 67% 59% -2.7%
≤90d 1038 +32.5% +19.9% 73% 64% +2.4%
all 1038 +32.5% +19.9% 73% 64% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.9% 64% +2.4%
10% ← realistic here +8.4% 48% -7.4%
15% -2.1% 35% -16.3%
20% -11.7% 26% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +49% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$125 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$67,789
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses759 / 279
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,781
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1038 / 1040
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$233
Trades / day67.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1038 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $99 $109 +$10 (+10%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 69¢ 100¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $404 −$95 -23%
UnionTouargaSports vs. COD Meknès: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$19 +164%
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 +$3 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $402 +$90 +22%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $399 +$74 +19%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $94 −$1 -1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $299 +$60 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $282 −$20 -7%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $18 +$2 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,179 +$867 +40%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,813 +$586 +32%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $19 +$7 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,629 +$805 +22%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $575 −$572 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $21 +$14 +67%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -98%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $43 +$44 +101%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $281 +$71 +25%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$2 +15%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,841 +$317 +17%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 +$3 +21%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $58 +$8 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $40 +$15 +37%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$64 +127%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,323 +$137 +10%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $687 +$10 +1%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $707 +$215 +30%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $108 +$6 +5%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 +$59 +147%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $384 +$97 +25%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $107 +$28 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $161 +$24 +15%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3,663 +$616 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $213 +$56 +26%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $399 −$14 -4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $43 −$42 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 +$7 +250%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $873 +$251 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $424 +$68 +16%
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $206 +$232 +112%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $227 −$2 -1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,835 +$515 +28%
Will North Carolina Courage win on 2026-05-31? Jun 11 $74 −$38 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 56¢ $97 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 40¢ $84 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 40¢ $105 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 40¢ $3 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 40¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 57¢ $101 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 57¢ $101 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 57¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $99 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 55¢ $101 1h
UnionTouargaSports vs. COD Meknès: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $11 4h
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $7 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $473 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $100 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $100 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $100 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $100 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $100 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $86 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $94 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 36¢ $1 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 43¢ $261 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 45¢ $282 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.21 · official $152.21 (match) · 3500 history records