Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b79…ad11 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$6
other 17% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.8% -2.5% 50% 29% -11.9%
≤30d 14 +7.8% -2.5% 50% 29% -11.9%
≤90d 14 +7.8% -2.5% 50% 29% -11.9%
all 14 +7.8% -2.5% 50% 29% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 29% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 29% -20.3%
15% -20.3% 29% -28.0%
20% -28.1% 21% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$13 +252%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $18 +$11 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $9 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.94 · official $2.94 (match) · 65 history records