Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9B 0x9b7a…bc22 sports 1092 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 140d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,086 (-2%) realized −$10,031 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%334W / 755L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$4,356est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 141d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$18,626
crypto 25% −$16,584
finance 13% +$10,230
other 2% +$8,022
politics 2% +$2,117
tech 2% −$588
world 0% −$666
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +16.9% +5.7% 33% 33% +0.2%
≤30d 197 +4.0% -5.9% 33% 32% -12.6%
≤90d 702 -19.9% -27.5% 29% 27% -19.6%
all 1089 -11.1% -19.5% 31% 29% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 29% -12.3%
10% -27.2% 28% -20.7%
15% -34.3% 26% -28.3%
20% -40.7% 25% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$563 vs −$270 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$1,425
Realized−$10,031
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses334 / 755
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$4,356
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1089 / 1092
History coverage141d ⚠
Avg bet$482
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1089 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 42¢ $1,000 $966 −$34 (-3%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $250 $240 −$10 (-4%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $230 $220 −$10 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $308 +$1,134 +369%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $358 +$332 +93%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $307 +$282 +92%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $257 −$155 -61%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $664 +$350 +53%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $511 +$535 +105%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $257 −$135 -53%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,001 −$984 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $199 −$195 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $45 −$44 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $300 −$254 -85%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $304 −$298 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $358 −$350 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $204 +$595 +291%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $199 −$194 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $154 −$131 -86%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $384 −$384 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $540 −$540 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $613 +$1,389 +226%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $622 −$82 -13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $383 −$383 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $989 +$1,632 +165%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $459 +$188 +41%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $487 −$487 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $427 −$427 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $246 −$75 -31%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $144 −$119 -83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $433 −$433 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $766 −$766 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $839 −$839 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $502 +$2,074 +413%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $988 +$2,428 +246%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,156 −$181 -16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $551 +$566 +103%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $437 −$437 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $774 −$774 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $201 −$201 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $827 −$827 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $159 −$159 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $769 −$769 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $604 −$604 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 15 $468 −$468 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,475 −$855 -58%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $2,660 −$2,660 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $661 −$661 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,268 −$2,268 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $511 −$511 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $828 −$348 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $257 27m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $236 27m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1,017 27m
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 69¢ $438 28m
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 68¢ $1,004 28m
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 50¢ $690 37m
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 42¢ $590 43m
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 5¢ $101 44m
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 25¢ $358 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 21¢ $307 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $1,014 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 51¢ $1,047 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 6¢ $121 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $664 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $257 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $511 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $257 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $998 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $199 17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $45 17h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Colombia 4¢ $46 17h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 25¢ $2 19h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 25¢ $298 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $304 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $102 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $799 23h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $199 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $256 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,425.04 · official $1,425.04 (match) · 3500 history records