Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b7b…ec5b weather 206 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$110 (+0%) realized +$104 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%194W / 3L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9,694now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$36
14 days+$51
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$61
politics 2% +$40
sports 1% +$2
other 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$3
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 167 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 193 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 2% -9.2%
all 197 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -9.0%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×28.97 per $1 lost it wins $28.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$9,694
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses194 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)197 / 206
History coverage594d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,473 $6,478 +$5 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,524 $1,524 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,330 $1,329 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? No 99¢ 100¢ $137 $138 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $121 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $171 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $257 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $399 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $367 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $262 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $194 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $209 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $205 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $44 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $43 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $230 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,440 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $79 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $35 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $59 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $37 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $39 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $11 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $13 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $473 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $90 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 93¢ $41 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,694.33 · official $9,694.33 (match) · 544 history records