Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b7b…a88d other 195 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28,238 (-9%) realized −$28,251 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate50%107W / 107L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,622per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$1,764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 250d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$36,982
sports 13% −$4,156
crypto 1% −$580
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -62.6% -66.2% 29% 16% -22.4%
≤30d 48 -50.5% -55.2% 40% 19% -18.0%
≤90d 48 -50.5% -55.2% 40% 19% -18.0%
all 214 -20.9% -28.4% 50% 26% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 26% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 16% -29.7%
15% -41.5% 11% -36.5%
20% -47.3% 7% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$2,148) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$272 vs −$679 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$1,764
Realized−$28,251
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses107 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)214 / 195
History coverage250d
Avg bet$1,622
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1,751 $1,764 +$13 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025? Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025 Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,721 +$48 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,664 +$56 +3%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,007 −$956 -95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,601 +$18 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,324 +$279 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,089 +$144 +7%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,885 +$208 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $117 −$9 -7%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $567 −$567 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $427 −$418 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $605 +$425 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $463 +$143 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,309 −$1,016 -78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $757 +$379 +50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,333 +$11 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,200 +$145 +12%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $824 +$375 +46%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $983 −$975 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1,030 −$1,020 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,559 +$241 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $2,491 +$89 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,383 +$122 +5%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $2,259 +$91 +4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $1,007 +$292 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $672 +$384 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,319 +$26 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 11 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 Feb 11 $310 +$10 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,767 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,770 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,721 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $51 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,614 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,601 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,324 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,233 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,942 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $55 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $147 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $819 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $176 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $21 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $225 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $78 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $250 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $30 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $58 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $18 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $64 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $68 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,763.83 · official $1,763.83 (match) · 2655 history records