Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b7c…6309 other 155 markets active 0h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+1%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%55W / 99L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% +$32
world 28% +$12
other 17% +$13
politics 16% +$1
economics 4% +$7
finance 3% $0
weather 2% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 85 +23.5% +11.7% 28% 1% -9.5%
all 154 +11.8% +1.2% 36% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 5% -8.9%
10% -8.5% 4% -17.6%
15% -17.4% 4% -25.6%
20% -25.5% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses55 / 99
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage553d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $54 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $60 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $55 −$3 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $57 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $25 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $77 −$3 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $65 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $55 +$5 +9%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $148 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $119 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $61 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $61 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $166 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $160 +$2 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $100 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $56 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $60 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $163 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $60 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $60 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $60 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $120 +$10 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 20 $104 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $55 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $45 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $90 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $93 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $131 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $54 27m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $42 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 41¢ $21 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 41¢ $39 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $60 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $52 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $55 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $57 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $57 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $25 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $57 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $57 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $29 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $27 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $56 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $54 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $60 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $62 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $62 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $62 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 625 history records