Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b7d…5bb6 crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$85 (+0%) realized +$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%80W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$43
other 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 62 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 80 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 1% -9.2%
10% -17.4% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.3% 1% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses80 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage126d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $357 $357 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $357 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $357 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $356 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $356 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $356 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $355 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $354 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $353 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $352 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $352 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $351 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $351 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $349 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $349 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $349 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $348 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $348 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $347 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $347 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $346 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $346 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $346 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 07 $348 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 07 $345 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? May 01 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? May 01 $278 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $208 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $347 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $346 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $346 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $346 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $345 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $345 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $345 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $344 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $343 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $342 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $341 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $339 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $338 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $337 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $337 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $335 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $357 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $357 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $357 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $356 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $356 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $356 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $355 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $354 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $353 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $352 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $352 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $351 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $351 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $350 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $350 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $350 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $3 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $349 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $349 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $349 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $348 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $348 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $347 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $347 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $346 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $346 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $3 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $346 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $348 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.36 · official $364.36 (match) · 163 history records