Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:12:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b7f…90eb world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-7%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$14
other 12% −$29
politics 12% +$1
culture 4% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 67% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 14 -2.3% -11.6% 36% 7% -12.2%
≤90d 16 -2.2% -11.5% 31% 6% -12.2%
all 33 -3.9% -13.0% 42% 3% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 3% -15.6%
10% -21.4% 0% -23.7%
15% -29.0% 0% -31.0%
20% -35.9% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage271d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $33 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $20 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $34 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $3 $0 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $34 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $45 −$11 -25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $48 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 -12%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1 $0 +15%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $47 −$2 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Nov 05 $7 $0 +3%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 04 $23 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on Oc Oct 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 26 $7 $0 +3%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $9 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $25 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $12 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $36 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $36 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $36 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $20 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $20 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $23 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $9 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $34 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 42¢ $13 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 42¢ $25 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 42¢ $38 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $31 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $3 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $45 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $49 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $48 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records