Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:38:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9B 0x9b89…85ac other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate15%15W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$9
politics 14% −$2
sports 6% −$11
tech 5% −$1
world 3% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.4% +6.2% 17% 17% -7.4%
≤30d 18 +5.7% -4.3% 11% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 103 +2.0% -7.7% 15% 13% -9.6%
all 103 +2.0% -7.7% 15% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 13% -9.6%
10% -16.5% 13% -18.2%
15% -24.6% 12% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses15 / 88
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage93d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 +$7 +105%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $193 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $107 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $105 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $200 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $212 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $108 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $439 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $215 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $207 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $226 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $179 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 28 $162 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $162 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $280 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 15 $221 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 19h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $7 25h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 41h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 46h
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $73 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $23 6d
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $23 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 10d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 15d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 17d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $18 17d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $18 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 18d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.55 · official $101.73 (match) · 295 history records