Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b96…4389 sports 417 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,455 (-1%) realized −$1,531 · open −$924
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate66%273W / 140L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$621per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Fees−$3,096est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,535
7 days−$5,837
14 days−$5,996
30 days−$7,205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,668
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +8.1% -2.2% 63% 60% -16.0%
≤30d 243 +0.5% -9.0% 63% 59% -13.2%
≤90d 413 +2.1% -7.6% 66% 64% -10.5%
all 413 +2.1% -7.6% 66% 64% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 64% -10.5%
10% -16.5% 51% -19.1%
15% ← realistic here -24.5% 36% -26.9%
20% -31.9% 19% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$735) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$513 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,531
Unrealized−$924
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses273 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3,096
Open positions4
Markets (closed)413 / 417
History coverage49d
Avg bet$621
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ 0¢ $410 $0 −$410 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 12¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 67¢ 0¢ $296 $0 −$296 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 69¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $510 +$465 +91%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $84 +$25 +30%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $900 −$900 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 17 $830 −$830 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $1,950 −$1,950 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,115 +$885 +79%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,230 +$770 +63%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,035 −$810 -78%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $470 −$470 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 15 $380 −$380 -100%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $350 +$650 +186%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $810 +$690 +85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $914 +$258 +28%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $660 +$340 +52%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $850 +$399 +47%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $358 +$292 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $875 +$374 +43%
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+2.5) Jun 14 $387 +$612 +158%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $750 +$249 +33%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $450 −$450 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $400 −$400 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,225 −$1,225 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $508 −$508 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,040 −$2,040 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,450 −$2,450 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $6,255 −$6,255 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $480 −$338 -70%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,077 +$67 +6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $450 +$87 +19%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $570 +$930 +163%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $400 +$100 +25%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $400 +$600 +150%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $97 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $670 +$330 +49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,027 −$247 -24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $610 +$389 +64%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,005 −$167 -17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $990 +$508 +51%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,100 +$898 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,422 +$576 +40%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $70 +$184 +263%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $594 +$231 +39%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $6,702 +$77 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3,939 +$1,555 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4,140 +$1,854 +45%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $376 −$376 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 12 $1,581 −$1,581 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $11 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $6 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $20 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $6 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $66 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 12¢ $123 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $50 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $11 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $11 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $216 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $9 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 70¢ $17 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 70¢ $333 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $9 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $6 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $144 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $10 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $179 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $2 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 12¢ $4 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 12¢ $2 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 35¢ $300 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $690 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.29 · official $1.29 (match) · 2405 history records