Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b96…d0bc weather 142 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$216 (-9%) realized −$216 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day52.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$258
14 days−$254
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$167
other 7% +$2
sports 4% −$81
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -11.1% -19.5% 8% 1% -21.0%
≤30d 141 -10.2% -18.7% 12% 1% -19.5%
≤90d 141 -10.2% -18.7% 12% 1% -19.5%
all 141 -10.2% -18.7% 12% 1% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 1% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 1% -27.2%
15% -33.6% 1% -34.2%
20% -40.1% 0% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$216
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 124
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage10d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day52.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? Jun 26 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27? Jun 26 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 26 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27? Jun 26 $29 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 28? Jun 26 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 27? Jun 26 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? Jun 26 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 27? Jun 26 $8 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28? Jun 26 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? Jun 26 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27? Jun 26 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? Jun 25 $29 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 25 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 27? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26? Jun 25 $9 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 27? Jun 25 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 26? Jun 25 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 26? Jun 25 $25 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? Jun 25 $11 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 27? Jun 25 $6 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? Jun 25 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? Jun 25 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 27? Jun 25 $4 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 26? Jun 25 $17 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? Jun 25 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 27? Jun 25 $32 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 27? Jun 25 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? Jun 25 $65 −$3 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 26? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 27? Jun 25 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? Jun 25 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27? Jun 25 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 25 $29 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 26? Jun 25 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 26? Jun 25 $44 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 25 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? Jun 25 $46 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 26? Jun 25 $33 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? Jun 25 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 26? Jun 25 $4 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 27? Jun 25 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? Jun 25 $29 −$5 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 26? Jun 25 $4 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $11 −$3 -25%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 25 $46 −$19 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 26? Jun 25 $9 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? SELL No 63¢ $3 26m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 63¢ $3 26m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 44m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 77¢ $7 55m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 78¢ $7 55m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 27¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 70¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 72¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 27? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 27? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 27? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28? SELL No 50¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? SELL No 55¢ $21 20h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 28¢ $11 20h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 28¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 28¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 27? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.34 · official $5.34 (match) · 536 history records