Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9B
0x9b98…e05a
weather · 18 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)3 / 18
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 15 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? No 33¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+202%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? No 7¢ 22¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+201%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 44¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 32¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? No 25¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 36¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 29¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Seoul have less than 100mm of precipitation in June? Yes 27¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? No 44¢ 13¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? No 25¢ 8¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 21¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? No 22¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? No 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 92% −$1
other 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 44¢ $2 10m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 25¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 7¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 44¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 32¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 36¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 22¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 29¢ $2 1h
Will Seoul have less than 100mm of precipitation in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 21¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 14¢ $1 2h
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June BUY No 91¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-67.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -63.5% -67.0% 33% 0% -29.9%
≤30d 3 -63.5% -67.0% 33% 0% -29.9%
≤90d 3 -63.5% -67.0% 33% 0% -29.9%
all 3 -63.5% -67.0% 33% 0% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.0% 0% -29.9%
10% -70.2% 0% -36.6%
15% -73.0% 0% -42.7%
20% -75.7% 0% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.61 · official $21.61 (match) · 19 history records