Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b9b…aed0 sports 1680 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1645W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$23
weather 19% +$16
other 16% +$12
crypto 2% +$1
finance 2% +$1
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 183 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1307 +0.1% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 1678 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1645 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1678 / 1680
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1678 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria Namibia 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 20 $0 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Northampton Saints/Leicester Tigers win? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Rory McIlroy lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria BUY Namibia 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $50 13h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $50 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 26h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 41h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 41h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 46h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 47h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 100¢ $50 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $39 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $11 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 100¢ $0 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 100¢ $50 2d
Will Northampton Saints/Leicester Tigers win? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 3d
Will Rory McIlroy lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 4d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 100¢ $50 4d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $50 4d
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $50 4d
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 3500 history records