trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Jun 12 | $45 | −$22 | -49% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Jun 12 | $475 | +$3 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -24.0% | -31.2% | 50% | 0% | -12.8% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -24.0% | -31.2% | 50% | 0% | -12.8% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -24.0% | -31.2% | 50% | 0% | -12.8% |
| all | 2 | -24.0% | -31.2% | 50% | 0% | -12.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -31.2% | 0% | -12.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -37.8% | 0% | -21.1% |
| 15% | -43.8% | 0% | -28.7% |
| 20% | -49.3% | 0% | -35.7% |