Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b9f…018f crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$189 (-3%) realized −$183 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate61%30W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$479
7 days−$479
14 days−$479
30 days−$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$752
other 9% −$6
sports 5% +$88
finance 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -82.6% -84.3% 14% 14% -81.5%
≤30d 7 -82.6% -84.3% 14% 14% -81.5%
≤90d 7 -82.6% -84.3% 14% 14% -81.5%
all 49 -20.9% -28.5% 61% 41% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 41% -21.4%
10% -35.3% 29% -28.9%
15% -41.6% 20% -35.8%
20% -47.3% 14% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$61 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$494
Realized−$183
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses30 / 19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage138d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 22 $241 −$235 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 05 $228 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 05 $226 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 05 $100 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 05 $179 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 05 $372 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 05 $100 +$6 +6%
Nuggets vs. Knicks Feb 05 $100 +$61 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 05 $160 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 05 $286 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 04 $274 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 04 $347 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 04 $338 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 04 $100 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 04 $100 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 04 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 04 $72 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 04 $200 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 04 $20 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 04 $244 +$18 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 04 $28 +$33 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 04 $20 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 04 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 04 $40 +$17 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 04 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 3? Feb 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 04 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 03 $40 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 03 $25 −$25 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2? Feb 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 03 $40 +$23 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 03 $20 +$9 +43%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $200 +$27 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $218 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $6 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $20 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $228 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $226 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $100 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $179 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $200 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $372 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $493.60 · official $493.60 (match) · 126 history records