Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9ba1…6d1d other 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$58 (-8%) realized −$35 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$17
sports 14% −$4
world 3% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -20.6% -28.1% 45% 40% -11.4%
≤30d 20 -20.6% -28.1% 45% 40% -11.4%
≤90d 20 -20.6% -28.1% 45% 40% -11.4%
all 20 -20.6% -28.1% 45% 40% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 40% -11.4%
10% -35.0% 35% -19.8%
15% -41.3% 20% -27.6%
20% -47.0% 15% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage7d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 −$20 -74%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$37 +73%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$17 +84%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +23%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 +$9 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $137 +$2 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $159 +$34 +22%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$3 -14%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $26 −$11 -44%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -48%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -49%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$20 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$18 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 14m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 16m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 20m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 20m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 71¢ $88 21m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $37 21m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 26m
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 30m
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $139 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $114 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $78 9h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 10h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 68¢ $79 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 10h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $25 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $81 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $3 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 5d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.12 · official $18.33 · 44 history records