Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9ba2…6b6c sports 451 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,572 (+8%) realized +$2,560 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%256W / 192L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$263est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$1,110
14 days+$1,078
30 days+$1,527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,460
other 0% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +5.3% -4.8% 60% 58% +4.3%
≤30d 176 +4.5% -5.5% 59% 57% -0.3%
≤90d 448 +3.3% -6.5% 57% 56% -2.7%
all 448 +3.3% -6.5% 57% 56% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 56% -2.7%
10% -15.5% 54% -12.0%
15% -23.6% 48% -20.5%
20% -31.1% 39% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$31 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized+$2,560
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses256 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$263
Open positions3
Markets (closed)448 / 451
History coverage72d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 448 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 76¢ 81¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 46¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 131 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $201 +$58 +29%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$24 +119%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $101 +$77 +76%
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 18 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $20 +$19 +93%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $20 +$13 +62%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $202 +$88 +44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 +$33 +109%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $51 +$28 +55%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $20 +$20 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,004 +$133 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$27 +130%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,835 +$417 +23%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1,667 +$166 +10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,431 +$228 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $703 −$500 -71%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 −$118 -59%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $773 +$117 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $201 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $201 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $10 43h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $101 2d
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ARETE 69¢ $71 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 53¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $10 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $20 3d
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 61¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $202 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $20 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 59¢ $20 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.83 · official $271.85 (match) · 852 history records