Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9ba3…22fa other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 608d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$390 (+9%) realized +$392 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%38W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$208
7 days+$377
14 days+$81
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$739
politics 24% −$210
crypto 15% −$72
sports 10% +$236
world 7% −$208
finance 3% −$92
economics 1% −$14
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +44.4% +30.6% 52% 52% +37.7%
≤30d 36 +3.8% -6.1% 42% 42% -4.4%
≤90d 36 +3.8% -6.1% 42% 42% -4.4%
all 95 +26.2% +14.2% 40% 40% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 40% -0.5%
10% +3.3% 38% -10.0%
15% -6.7% 38% -18.7%
20% -15.9% 35% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$35 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized+$392
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses38 / 57
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)95 / 101
History coverage608d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $75 $74 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $65 +$35 +55%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $13 +$87 +650%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $64 +$36 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $46 +$54 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $24 +$76 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$80 +388%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 +$38 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 +$51 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$53 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$76 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$33 +49%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$62 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$51 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Nov 01 $96 +$104 +108%
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 3 Oct 29 $112 −$112 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 29 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 29 $112 −$112 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire before July? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 11 $112 −$92 -82%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 09 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? May 08 $102 −$84 -82%
Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary el May 08 $18 +$33 +186%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $66 +$44 +67%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? Apr 15 $52 −$36 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Apr 11? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March? Apr 11 $81 +$819 +1010%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 23h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 47h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.99 · official $262.00 (match) · 201 history records