Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:26:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9B 0x9ba4…f8c2 politics 1259 markets active 2h ago coverage 362d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 362d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$48,817 (+19%) realized +$48,843 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate95%1195W / 61L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$251
7 days+$1,434
14 days+$1,209
30 days+$2,481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% +$34,822
world 10% +$5,692
other 7% +$1,203
finance 5% +$2,115
economics 4% +$2,350
sports 3% +$1,070
tech 3% +$285
crypto 2% +$2,830
culture 0% +$431
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +16.5% +5.4% 98% 28% +16.8%
≤30d 122 +16.5% +5.4% 94% 30% +8.7%
≤90d 293 +17.1% +6.0% 96% 42% +12.6%
all 1256 +21.0% +9.5% 95% 54% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.5% 54% +8.6%
10% -1.0% 31% -1.8%
15% -10.6% 18% -11.3%
20% -19.3% 11% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$142 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.97 per $1 lost it wins $6.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$48,843
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1195 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1256 / 1259
History coverage362d ⚠
Avg bet$202
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ? Yes 87¢ 78¢ $126 $113 −$12 (-10%)
Will Starmer say "Scotland" during the next PMQ? Yes 94¢ 74¢ $39 $30 −$8 (-22%)
Will Trump say "Bond" in June? Yes 94¢ 74¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Canada vs Qa Jun 18 $60 +$3 +6%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor Jun 18 $96 +$7 +7%
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? Jun 18 $70 +$5 +7%
Will Trump say "Oil" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? Jun 18 $44 +$3 +7%
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 1 Jun 18 $49 +$4 +7%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Czechia vs S Jun 18 $255 +$18 +7%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI Jun 18 $49 +$4 +9%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA Jun 18 $118 +$7 +6%
Will the announcers say "Love" or "Lovely" during the England vs Croat Jun 18 $143 +$19 +13%
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo Jun 17 $114 +$43 +38%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 17 $36 +$2 +7%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $86 +$6 +7%
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $42 +$2 +6%
Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $63 +$3 +5%
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con Jun 17 $239 +$15 +6%
Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $102 +$5 +5%
Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $26 +$3 +12%
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $165 +$13 +8%
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $69 +$3 +5%
Will Trump say "Brazil" during G7 events? Jun 17 $64 +$5 +8%
Will Trump say "Africa" during G7 events? Jun 17 $68 +$6 +9%
Will Trump say "Prince" during G7 events? Jun 17 $68 +$6 +9%
Will Trump say "Space Force" this week? Jun 17 $168 +$19 +12%
Will Trump say "Wonderful" this week? Jun 17 $76 +$5 +7%
Will Trump say "Sick" this week? Jun 17 $98 +$4 +4%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during G7 events? Jun 17 $82 +$11 +14%
Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during G7 events? Jun 17 $119 +$5 +4%
Will Trump say "Memorandum" during G7 events? Jun 17 $119 +$17 +15%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June? Jun 17 $38 +$4 +10%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 16 $86 +$31 +36%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during G7 events? Jun 16 $204 +$776 +380%
Will Trump say "World War" during G7 events? Jun 16 $74 +$7 +10%
Will Trump say "Affordability" this week? Jun 16 $124 +$15 +12%
Will Trump say "Egg" this week? Jun 16 $127 +$16 +13%
Will Trump say "Versailles" during G7 events? Jun 16 $77 +$8 +10%
Will Trump say "Field Marshal" or "Prime Minister" during G7 events? Jun 16 $77 +$8 +10%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during G7 events? Jun 16 $97 +$8 +9%
Will Trump say "Israel" during G7 events? Jun 16 $70 +$7 +10%
Will Trump say "Putin" during G7 events? Jun 16 $117 +$33 +28%
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during G7 events? Jun 16 $71 +$6 +9%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 16 $71 +$5 +6%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during G7 events? Jun 16 $66 +$6 +10%
Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Qatari" during G7 events? Jun 16 $65 +$5 +8%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $184 +$42 +23%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during meeting with French Presi Jun 15 $460 +$287 +62%
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $92 −$91 -99%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 13 $89 +$11 +12%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Canada vs Qa SELL Yes 99¢ $63 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Canada vs Qa BUY Yes 93¢ $60 1h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor SELL Yes 99¢ $103 2h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor BUY Yes 92¢ $96 2h
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? SELL Yes 99¢ $75 3h
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? BUY Yes 92¢ $70 3h
Will Trump say "Oil" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 3h
Will Trump say "Oil" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? BUY Yes 92¢ $44 3h
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 1 SELL Yes 99¢ $52 3h
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 1 BUY Yes 92¢ $49 3h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Czechia vs S SELL Yes 99¢ $273 4h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI SELL Yes 99¢ $53 7h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI BUY Yes 90¢ $49 7h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA SELL Yes 99¢ $125 7h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA BUY Yes 93¢ $118 7h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Czechia vs S BUY Yes 92¢ $255 8h
Will the announcers say "Love" or "Lovely" during the England vs Croat SELL Yes 99¢ $161 22h
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo SELL Yes 99¢ $5 27h
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo SELL Yes 99¢ $1 27h
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo SELL Yes 99¢ $5 27h
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo SELL Yes 99¢ $5 27h
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo SELL Yes 99¢ $5 27h
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo SELL Yes 99¢ $5 27h
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL Yes 99¢ $39 27h
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo SELL Yes 99¢ $32 27h
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo SELL Yes 99¢ $99 27h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W SELL Yes 99¢ $36 27h
Will the announcers say "Love" or "Lovely" during the England vs Croat BUY Yes 87¢ $143 27h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W SELL Yes 99¢ $56 27h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 92¢ $86 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.41 · official $163.39 (match) · 3500 history records