Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9ba4…670e sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$178 (-8%) realized −$128 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$257
14 days−$13
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$30
other 25% −$154
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +83.2% +65.7% 40% 40% +99.8%
≤30d 23 -6.8% -15.6% 26% 26% -21.4%
≤90d 44 -12.1% -20.4% 41% 34% -16.7%
all 44 -12.1% -20.4% 41% 34% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 34% -16.7%
10% -28.1% 34% -24.6%
15% -35.0% 25% -31.9%
20% -41.4% 23% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$28 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized−$128
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions20
Markets (closed)44 / 64
History coverage61d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 33¢ 44¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 42¢ 14¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-68%)
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 68¢ 3¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$66 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$80 +388%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$85 +276%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$136 +442%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $20 +$16 +77%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 02 $20 +$7 +36%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 24 $51 +$37 +74%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 20 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $121 +$32 +26%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic May 11 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $51 +$29 +57%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo May 10 $30 +$17 +57%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? May 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $471 +$25 +5%
Madrid Open: Learner Tien vs Adolfo Vallejo Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 29 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Benjamin Bonzi Apr 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse Apr 24 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 7d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 7d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 7d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 7d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 7d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.30 · official $450.30 (match) · 91 history records