Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9ba6…4248 crypto 221 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$248 · open −$236
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%122W / 98L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$529now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$32
crypto 35% +$40
sports 15% −$94
world 4% +$40
tech 1% −$46
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 220 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 50% -4.5%
all 220 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 50% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 50% -4.5%
10% -23.0% 45% -13.6%
15% -30.4% 36% -22.0%
20% -37.3% 25% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$529
Realized+$248
Unrealized−$236
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses122 / 98
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)220 / 221
History coverage65d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $765 $529 −$236 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? May 09 $33 +$46 +138%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1 $0 -3%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs GenOne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Eu Apr 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $31 −$31 -99%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Gr Apr 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 28 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Petrojet SC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Apr 28 $4 +$1 +32%
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $11 +$9 +76%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5) Apr 28 $26 +$24 +93%
Spread: NEOM SC (-1.5) Apr 28 $45 +$28 +64%
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $30 +$30 +98%
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $13 +$7 +59%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Alzon (BO3) - CCT South America Seri Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will ZED FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $40 +$59 +149%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs ReThink (BO3) - European Pro League Reg Apr 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Gr Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 28 $33 −$27 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 28 $24 +$26 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6AM ET Apr 28 $100 −$80 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2AM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11PM ET Apr 28 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10PM ET Apr 28 $3 +$2 +72%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $25 +$25 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3PM ET Apr 27 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2PM ET Apr 27 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12PM ET Apr 27 $4 +$1 +43%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10AM ET Apr 27 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9AM ET Apr 27 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5AM ET Apr 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6AM ET Apr 27 $24 +$26 +108%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $7 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3PM ET Apr 26 $38 +$12 +32%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Seri Apr 26 $4 +$3 +73%
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-1.5) Apr 26 $4 +$2 +39%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Apr 26 $6 +$3 +53%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $3 +$1 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $241 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $429 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $77 43d
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? SELL Yes 26¢ $52 43d
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 43d
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 43d
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 43d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 48d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 48d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 48d
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Daniil Medvedev 63¢ $3 53d
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-28? BUY No 62¢ $31 53d
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-04-28? BUY No 44¢ $22 53d
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 53d
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-03? SELL No 100¢ $5 53d
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-03? BUY No 77¢ $4 53d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY No 42¢ $20 53d
Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 53d
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 53d
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5) SELL Damac Saudi Club 100¢ $50 53d
Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $4 53d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $57 53d
Spread: NEOM SC (-1.5) SELL Al Hazem SC 100¢ $73 53d
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $11 53d
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Damac Saudi Club 51¢ $26 53d
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-04-28? SELL No 100¢ $60 53d
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.89 · official $528.89 (match) · 734 history records