Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9ba6…680d other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$552 (-10%) realized −$552 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$505
7 days−$601
14 days−$727
30 days−$727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$298
other 41% −$470
crypto 2% +$61
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -22.8% -30.2% 34% 34% -21.1%
≤30d 93 -19.0% -26.7% 37% 37% -21.6%
≤90d 93 -19.0% -26.7% 37% 37% -21.6%
all 93 -19.0% -26.7% 37% 37% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 37% -21.6%
10% -33.7% 33% -29.1%
15% -40.1% 30% -35.9%
20% -46.0% 24% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$44 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$552
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 59
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage13d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $31 +$58 +188%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $403 −$72 -18%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $100 +$18 +18%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $101 +$60 +59%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$12 +12%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $50 +$23 +46%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $13 −$9 -66%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$10 +20%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 −$73 -72%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $30 +$8 +28%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $31 +$100 +325%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$138 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 +$28 +28%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $101 −$18 -18%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$74 -73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $101 +$91 +90%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 −$13 -64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $101 −$94 -93%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$17 -82%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$14 -66%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $122 +$116 +95%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$60 +119%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$3 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $51 +$45 +89%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 9h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 9h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 9h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $161 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 9h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 43¢ $211 9h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 63¢ $81 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 71¢ $19 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $113 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 12h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 23h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 23h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $61 24h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 24h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records