Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:41:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9B 0x9ba9…80a4 sports 61 markets active 23h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$55 (+11%) realized +$54 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%31W / 22L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$204
14 days+$210
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$115
other 33% +$105
world 1% −$5
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +83.6% +66.1% 100% 100% +55.6%
≤30d 53 +11.0% +0.5% 58% 58% +32.7%
≤90d 53 +11.0% +0.5% 58% 58% +32.7%
all 53 +11.0% +0.5% 58% 58% +32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 58% +32.7%
10% -9.2% 57% +20.0%
15% -17.9% 51% +8.4%
20% -26.0% 42% -2.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.57 per $1 lost it wins $4.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses31 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 61
History coverage17d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 44¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+120%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND South Africa vs. Canada: Jun 28 $30 +$14 +48%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$22 +221%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$7 +73%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$11 +52%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? AN Jun 26 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $51 +$56 +111%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on Jun 25 $51 +$30 +59%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4 +$3 +65%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 +$3 +83%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $6 +$6 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +550%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $8 22h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY 30¢ $10 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND South Africa vs. Canada: BUY 67¢ $30 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 44h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 44h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will BUY 27¢ $10 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 59¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 47¢ $51 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on BUY 62¢ $51 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 10d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Canada win on BUY 31¢ $5 11d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 66¢ $7 12d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 AND Will Po BUY 47¢ $1 12d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $4 12d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $4 12d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 49¢ $5 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 13d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $2 13d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 13d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $3 13d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $4 13d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $6 13d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $0 13d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 14d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $3 14d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 14d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.74 · official $12.75 (match) · 99 history records