Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9B
0x9bac…8684
other · 103 markets active 5h ago
3.0score
+$49,310 +47%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$49,371 · open −$306
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$478
Realized+$49,371
Unrealized−$306
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses36 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage998d
Avg bet$1,017
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 3 History 100 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11,644
7 days+$11,644
14 days+$11,642
30 days+$37,789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $754 $458 −$296 (-39%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $28 $19 −$9 (-32%)
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%? No 0¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Russian nuke in space in 2024? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
US military intervention by Oct 31? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Will Trump tweet again in 2023? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Kevin Spacey be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 16? No 0¢ 0¢ $274 $0 −$274 (-100%)
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $327 $0 −$327 (-100%)
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less than $16m opening weekend? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $285 $0 −$285 (-100%)
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
American aid to Israel by Dec 31? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $601 $0 −$601 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $2,307 +$1,146 +50%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $6,853 +$1,445 +21%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $5,617 +$9,053 +161%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 29 $456 +$450 +99%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $16 +$2,327 +14186%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $943 +$2,892 +307%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $50 +$6,312 +12683%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 22 $7,956 +$80 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 22 $3,624 +$351 +10%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22? May 22 $502 +$277 +55%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 20 $943 −$80 -8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 19 $216 +$9,056 +4190%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 16 $98 +$8 +8%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,586 +$4,475 +282%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $734 −$706 -96%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 08 $2,263 +$398 +18%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 08 $278 +$75 +27%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by May 31, 2026? May 08 $121 +$18 +14%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 02 $24,878 +$5,947 +24%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 29 $964 −$944 -98%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 29 $1,100 −$146 -13%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and Apr 10 $88 −$1 -1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
BitBoy convicted? Apr 02 $602 +$7,797 +1294%
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Apr 01 $2,663 +$337 +13%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Mar 30 $2,723 +$936 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 16? Mar 19 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15) Mar 18 $132 −$108 -82%
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württember Mar 09 $1,012 −$293 -29%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files Feb 26 $4,810 −$4,810 -100%
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28? Feb 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files by Febru Feb 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by Feb Feb 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files by February 2 Feb 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Kevin Spacey be named in newly released Epstein files by February Feb 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Rupert Murdoch be named in newly released Epstein files by Februa Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Noam Chomsky be named in newly released Epstein files by February Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files by Febru Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Al Gore be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28? Feb 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files by Februa Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files by Feb Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 23 $4,690 +$40 +1%
Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by February Feb 23 $300 −$300 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? Feb 22 $601 −$601 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 05 $5,369 +$4,042 +75%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Feb 03 $373 +$221 +59%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? Jan 31 $600 +$554 +92%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Jan 31 $1,810 +$1,044 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 47% +$27,682
other 43% +$5,090
tech 3% +$419
world 2% +$11,062
culture 2% +$551
economics 2% +$4,475
crypto 1% +$6
weather 1% −$220
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 4h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,993 6h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 85¢ $240 6h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 85¢ $850 6h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,484 6h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 86¢ $822 7h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 7h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $4,131 7h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY Yes 66¢ $2,307 7h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $2,947 7h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $333 7h
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 41h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,084 21d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $490 21d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $903 21d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $587 21d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22? BUY Yes 79¢ $203 21d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,375 21d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $854 21d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22? BUY Yes 56¢ $299 21d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,285 21d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $83 23d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $85 23d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 23d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $22 25d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $340 25d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 25d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 25d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +77.3% +60.4% 100% 100% +61.8%
≤30d 15 +459.0% +405.7% 87% 67% +65.2%
≤90d 30 +253.9% +220.2% 67% 57% +42.5%
all 100 +59.9% +44.7% 36% 30% +23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.7% 30% +23.6%
10% +30.8% 23% +11.7%
15% +18.2% 19% +0.9%
20% +6.6% 18% -9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $477.59 · official $477.59 (match) · 861 history records