Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bb2…464d other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$5
other 33% +$11
sports 9% +$1
politics 7% +$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 18 +1.1% -8.5% 44% 6% -8.4%
≤90d 18 +1.1% -8.5% 44% 6% -8.4%
all 45 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 7% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 7% -7.8%
10% -18.7% 4% -16.6%
15% -26.5% 4% -24.6%
20% -33.7% 2% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.98 per $1 lost it wins $8.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage478d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $46 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $23 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $77 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $95 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $6 −$2 -25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $80 +$4 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $36 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Orlando Magic win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jake Paul fight Artur Beterbiev next? Apr 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 Apr 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? Apr 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Apr 03 $1 $0 -6%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? Apr 01 $1 $0 -37%
Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $28 +$1 +2%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 26 $28 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $7 +$2 +22%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $17 $0 -0%
Ripple above $2.15 on March 7? Mar 11 $26 $0 +1%
Will Montoya stay with his girlfriend? Mar 07 $17 +$9 +52%
Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois Mar 04 $15 +$2 +10%
Eastern Kentucky vs. Jacksonville Mar 03 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $46 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $46 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $1 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $45 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $46 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $24 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $23 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $20 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $15 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $25 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $11 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $41 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $39 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $33 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $43 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $39 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $38 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.92 · official $45.92 (match) · 141 history records