Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bb3…263d other 146 markets active 7h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23 (-2%) realized −$26 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%51W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$14
14 days−$157
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$48
sports 15% +$21
world 1% −$10
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -7.4% -16.2% 37% 37% -15.5%
≤30d 54 -22.4% -29.8% 30% 30% -46.5%
≤90d 131 -15.4% -23.5% 35% 34% -17.4%
all 142 -10.2% -18.8% 36% 35% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 35% -12.4%
10% -26.6% 35% -20.8%
15% -33.7% 34% -28.5%
20% -40.2% 32% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses51 / 91
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)142 / 146
History coverage110d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+59%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$3 -63%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$4 -78%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$11 +224%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +339%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +166%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -39%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $7 −$5 -70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$8 +162%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$10 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$13 +257%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-03? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-03? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-03? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 07 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 47h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 47h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $2 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 8¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $17 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 72¢ $7 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $3 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.10 · official $23.10 (match) · 298 history records