Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9bb6…5154 sports 988 markets active 1h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,050 (+3%) realized +$1,050 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%452W / 536L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$371
7 days+$186
14 days+$309
30 days+$598
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$885
crypto 40% +$79
politics 3% −$63
other 2% −$9
economics 0% +$8
world 0% +$4
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +68.0% +52.0% 43% 43% +3.1%
≤30d 206 +21.5% +9.9% 46% 46% +3.2%
≤90d 324 +12.0% +1.4% 46% 46% -3.4%
all 988 +5.5% -4.6% 46% 42% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 42% -7.3%
10% -13.7% 39% -16.1%
15% -22.0% 35% -24.2%
20% -29.7% 29% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,050
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses452 / 536
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)988 / 988
History coverage545d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 988 Trades
no open positions (421 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$15 +289%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $259 +$88 +34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $41 +$54 +132%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$22 +107%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$85 +166%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +46%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $56 +$149 +264%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$87 +340%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $140 −$138 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$18 +87%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$13 +132%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $15 +$8 +55%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 +$15 +101%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $2 +$10 +509%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $15 +$16 +105%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $30 +$24 +78%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 07 $30 +$11 +37%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 07 $5 +$10 +191%
Will Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $44 +$62 +140%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $41 +$57 +139%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$9 +180%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $40 +$10 +24%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $20 +$10 +50%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $20 +$7 +36%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $20 +$10 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $12 52m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 69¢ $8 56m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $198 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $74 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 46¢ $20 19h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 42¢ $20 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $10 20h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 38¢ $10 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 66¢ $20 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $42 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $20 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $103 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $20 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 66¢ $33 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $31 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $51 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 9¢ $10 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $10 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $20 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $20 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 32¢ $20 23h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $5 41h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 4¢ $5 41h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $3 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 50¢ $149 43h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 46¢ $147 43h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 46¢ $21 43h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $112 43h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 26¢ $33 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1990 history records