Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9B 0x9bb8…eb07 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$394 (-24%) realized −$112 · open −$395
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$307
crypto 36% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -11.0% -19.5% 50% 50% -22.3%
≤30d 6 -11.0% -19.5% 50% 50% -22.3%
≤90d 6 -11.0% -19.5% 50% 50% -22.3%
all 6 -11.0% -19.5% 50% 50% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 50% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 50% -29.8%
15% -34.2% 50% -36.6%
20% -40.7% 33% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$131 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$395
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B Joblife 57¢ 47¢ $181 $149 −$33 (-18%)
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Hive 31¢ 6¢ $174 $31 −$143 (-82%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner Team AION 28¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports - Map 1 Winner Joblife 61¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $97 +$87 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 29 $102 −$99 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $193 −$193 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$100 -96%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $202 +$88 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $104 +$105 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B BUY Joblife 57¢ $184 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $97 23m
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 31¢ $178 24m
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B SELL Joblife 65¢ $275 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $102 27m
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B SELL Joblife 65¢ $102 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B BUY Joblife 46¢ $271 1h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ - Map 2 Winner SELL Prestige 100¢ $290 1h
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY Joblife 61¢ $75 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY Team AION 27¢ $112 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY Team AION 28¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY Team AION 28¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY Team AION 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY Team AION 28¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY Team AION 28¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY Team AION 28¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ - Map 2 Winner BUY Prestige 69¢ $202 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.00 · official $180.00 (match) · 24 history records