Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bbf…49c1 sports 1117 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (427 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$732 (+6%) realized +$823 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%570W / 608L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day427.5pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$550
7 days−$277
14 days−$62
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$714
other 6% +$59
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (427 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1114 -11.1% -19.5% 47% 42% -11.7%
≤30d 1178 -7.2% -16.0% 48% 43% -10.0%
≤90d 1178 -7.2% -16.0% 48% 43% -10.0%
all 1178 -7.2% -16.0% 48% 43% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover427.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 43% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 37% -18.6%
15% -31.4% 31% -26.5%
20% -38.1% 25% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$823
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses570 / 608
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1178 / 1117
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day427.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 52¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Patins da Ferrari 71¢ 62¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 21¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner largadosypelados 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Acend (+1.5) Acend 48¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Navarro Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Beatrise Zeltina Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Gyula: Nico Hipfl vs Aleksandr Braynin Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Noah Karma Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Gyula: Nico Hipfl vs Pietro Fellin Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Luque: Maria Herazo vs Maria Florencia Urrutia Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Sandro Kopp Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Imperial Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO1) - South Ame Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Lourinha: Thijs Boogaard vs Fabrizio Andaloro Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Saarlouis: Yannik Kelm vs Marcel Zielinski Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Brescia (Doubles): Fick/McGiffin vs Bagaric/Huergo Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5) Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $1 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 0m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 1m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 1m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $0 1m
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner SELL ShindeN 99¢ $30 15m
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am BUY Patins da Ferrari 71¢ $6 19m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $5 21m
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner BUY largadosypelados 15¢ $5 28m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 13¢ $13 34m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 13¢ $1 34m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 13¢ $10 34m
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner BUY largadosypelados 43¢ $6 35m
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am BUY Patins da Ferrari 72¢ $4 36m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.12 · official $43.81 (match) · 3500 history records