Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:15:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

9B 0x9bbf…5688 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$68 (+21%) realized +$69 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%10W / 5L

Drawdown9%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$42

7 days+$42

14 days+$42

30 days+$85

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-6.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+14.3%	+3.4%	50%	50%	+66.1%
≤30d	4	+27.7%	+15.6%	75%	75%	+41.8%
≤90d	10	-13.7%	-22.0%	50%	50%	+41.7%
all	15	+2.9%	-6.9%	67%	67%	+41.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.9%	67%	+41.0%
10%	-15.8%	60%	+27.5%
15%	-23.9%	40%	+15.2%
20%	-31.4%	33%	+3.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 68% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -3% → late +8% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$3 · ×3.87 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.75 per $1 lost it wins $7.75

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage

Net worth$127

Realized+$69

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses10 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage103d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown9%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	74¢	$110	$109	−$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$18	$18	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$41	+$52	+129%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$10	−$10	-98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$55	+$32	+58%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Jun 04	$44	+$11	+24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	May 02	$22	+$22	+100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Apr 15	$6	+$3	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Apr 08	$1	−$1	-100%
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers	Apr 08	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20?	Apr 08	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Apr 08	$1	−$1	-100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Mar 24	$2	+$1	+48%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 22 be between 2,700,	Mar 24	$3	+$1	+35%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro	Mar 19	$2	+$1	+59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Mar 18	$1	$0	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Mar 18	$1	$0	+29%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	41¢	$18	39m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$111	39m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	43¢	$41	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	44¢	$10	2h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	100¢	$87	15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	62¢	$55	19d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	BUY Yes	80¢	$44	58d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	BUY Yes	49¢	$22	75d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	SELL Yes	99¢	$9	75d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL Yes	37¢	$3	97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$1	103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$1	103d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY Yes	25¢	$2	103d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro	BUY Aurora Gaming	63¢	$2	103d
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers	BUY Lehigh Mountain Hawks	60¢	$2	103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$1	103d
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 22 be between 2,700,	BUY Yes	74¢	$3	103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$1	103d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	BUY Yes	65¢	$6	103d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20?	BUY Yes	31¢	$2	103d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.04 · official $127.04 (match) · 32 history records