Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9B 0x9bc1…830e crypto 181 markets active 4d ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,304 (-15%) realized −$3,304 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%107W / 74L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$540
14 days−$540
30 days−$1,997
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$2,876
other 13% −$733
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -15.1% -23.1% 40% 40% -45.7%
≤30d 12 -28.6% -35.4% 33% 33% -64.1%
≤90d 181 +5.7% -4.3% 59% 56% -21.9%
all 181 +5.7% -4.3% 59% 56% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 56% -21.9%
10% -13.5% 48% -29.4%
15% -21.9% 43% -36.2%
20% -29.5% 35% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$125 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,304
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses107 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 181
History coverage47d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$14 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $202 +$121 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $409 −$400 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $294 +$64 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $62 +$46 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$16 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -94%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $840 −$781 -93%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $911 −$675 -74%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $508 +$591 +116%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $704 +$139 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 17 $104 +$152 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 17 $103 +$74 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 16 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 16 $103 +$84 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 16 $12 −$7 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 16 $509 +$162 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 16 $102 +$92 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 16 $409 +$139 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 16 $103 +$80 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 16 $103 −$95 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 16 $42 −$35 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 16 $103 +$90 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 16 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 16 $104 +$143 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 16 $711 +$173 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 16 $607 +$107 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 16 $406 +$101 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 16 $404 +$63 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 16 $31 +$27 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 16 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 16 $42 +$30 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 16 $104 +$108 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 16 $103 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 16 $10 +$13 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 16 $52 −$46 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 16 $103 +$62 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 16 $62 +$44 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 16 $103 +$92 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $304 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $324 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $202 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $94 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $315 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $108 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $62 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $294 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $32 4d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $58 28d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $128 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes 14¢ $126 28d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 55¢ $712 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes 18¢ $93 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $911 28d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,100 30d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $508 30d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $843 30d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $704 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $177 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 385 history records