Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:53:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9B 0x9bc1…692e crypto 151 markets active 1d ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,113 (+11%) realized +$3,113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%43W / 108L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,019
7 days+$717
14 days+$1,808
30 days+$1,057
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$3,706
sports 23% +$5,858
finance 2% −$424
politics 1% −$207
world 0% −$49
other 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -19.8% -27.4% 27% 23% +2.5%
≤30d 143 -22.4% -29.8% 29% 27% -5.5%
≤90d 146 -20.6% -28.2% 29% 27% -1.9%
all 151 -23.3% -30.6% 28% 26% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 26% -4.1%
10% -37.2% 26% -13.3%
15% -43.3% 24% -21.7%
20% -48.8% 22% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -27% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$409 vs −$149 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses43 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage258d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (95 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $332 −$320 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $90 −$17 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $169 −$162 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $520 −$493 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$63 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $579 +$292 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $483 −$210 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $204 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $210 +$356 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $261 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $282 +$183 +65%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$31 +509%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $809 +$2,949 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $178 −$174 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $534 −$520 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $528 −$500 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $164 −$157 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $39 −$37 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$29 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $105 −$99 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $37 +$15 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $105 +$240 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $635 −$600 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $332 +$623 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $292 +$44 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $130 +$103 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $170 +$93 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $365 −$365 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $665 −$650 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $740 −$507 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $229 −$25 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $326 −$308 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $105 −$57 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $18 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $90 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $46 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 783 history records